The crumbling values of electric cars pushed rental company Hertz to a loss last quarter, caused the collapse of UK EV provider Onto in September and dented the 2023 bottom line of one Europe’s largest leasing companies after it made a loss on EV disposals.

Stable used car values have become critical to new car sales in that they determine finance costs, so the continued weakness in EV prices is also hurting car companies as they look to increase the percentage of zero-emission cars they sell. 

Those car companies are now torn. They either boost demand for pricier EVs by slashing prices, which would shred used values. Or they shore up those values by holding firm on pricing, losing them customers.

“We have to be very careful on how we manage the residual value of EVs,” Luca de Meo, CEO of the Renault Group, said on the company’s earning call in mid-February.”The most dangerous thing is pushing cars that the market doesn't want.”

Used electric car prices in the UK collapsed in spring last year after spiking unsustainable in 2022.

After a period of stabilisation, EV values are now weakening again as increasing numbers hit the used forecourts. Price researcher CAP noted a further 1.9% decline in prices for one-year-old EVs in January compared with the month previous, versus no change for petrols, diesels and hybrids. 

A big reason for the decline is the increased discounting on new EVs, with CAP pointing to discounts of up to £15,000. “With such strong new car offers on EVs, where is the incentive for the used buyer?” CAP noted in its February report.

Discounts on electric cars have increased by 204% in 12 months, according to a new report by What Car?, equating to another £3149 on the table. Honda topped the incentive charts in January with an average discount of 21% on its sole EV, the e:Ny1 small SUV, but the Stellantis brands of Vauxhall, Fiat and Jeep took the next three places. 

This was despite Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares claiming in the company’s recent earnings call that the company was protecting margins on EVs by holding firm on pricing.

The UK has been the hardest hit on EV values in Europe, according to Tim Albertsen, CEO of Ayvens, the leasing giant created last year through the merger of Leaseplan and ALD. Ayvens operates throughout Europe and is now the UK’s largest leasing company. In the last quarter of 2023, it booked a loss on the approximately 8000 electric cars it sold onto the used market in those three months.

“The UK was probably the worst in terms of EVs in Q4, for different reasons,” Albertsen said on the company’s earnings call in February. One of the reasons he pointed to was the “EV bashing” by sections of the media, which has created a more negative view of electric cars and thus depressed prices. This has also been highlighted by the recent House of Lords report.

Another reason he cited was that UK cars can’t be shipped to regions in Europe with more appetite for used EVs, because they are not left-hand drive. “We do a lot of cross-border EV sales because the markets are performing very differently,” he said. “We are not seeing losses on our EVs in Norway.”

The switch to EVs has, of course, been driven partly by Tesla, which has also introduced a much more open pricing mechanism linked to its direct sales method. Instead of discounting, the company cuts the list price.

“The way Tesla prices its cars is very bad for residual values,” Albertsen said. “Having a list price that goes up and down is poison for residual value setting.” German software company SAP has reportedly removed Teslas from its company car list partly due to their unpredictable valuations.

Tesla’s approach contrasts with the more traditional method of discounting, in which the list price stays the same but the customer is offered money off, either in the form of cash savings or reduced monthly payments. “VW has probably given much more discount than Tesla ever did, but they don't show it. They do it hiddenly,” Albertsen said. “It's much more healthy for residual values.” 

Ayvens intends to hang on to EVs longer by offering cars back to the lease market after they come back, something it already does in the Netherlands. That way, it’s much less exposed to volatile used prices.

That volatility was cited as the reason for the liquidation of flexible EV lease provider Onto last year, which collapsed in September after six years. The company’s administrator cited “the steep fall in electric vehicle residual value in the first half of 2023” as well as rising interest rates and lack of funding.

Meanwhile, global rental company Hertz booked a loss in the fourth quarter of 2023 after taking a hit on the early sale of 20,000 EVs from its fleet, including Teslas and Polestars. The company was struggling with the higher costs of running EVs.

“Incremental steps to wrestle down the cost elements of the EVs were not going to work,” CEO Stephen M Scherr told analysts on his company’s earnings call.

The gloom around residuals contrasts vividly with the confidence car companies had back in 2022 that strong used values were going to offset the higher purchase cost of EVs.

Those car companies are now fully focused on reducing costs of the next generation of EVs and bringing down the list price in a way that doesn’t harm the resale price. Where Tesla has led the way on removing cost, others hope to follow and its efforts have already convinced Ayvens, a major customer. 

“We anticipate manufacturing costs for full EVs will reduce over the next four to five years. Hence we are adjusting prices on new contracts,” Albertsen said. Ayvens has even negotiated with some car makers to be compensated if they cut the list price within a set period after purchase.

For now, though, CAP has called for incentives to encourage buyers of used EVs. “There is consumer interest, but it is not to the level required to purchase the volumes that are returning to the used market,” it wrote.